本杰明·富尔福德 2015年2月2日消息

Why a future planning agency
为什么我们需要一个发改委
 
When I first came to Japan in 1980 I was amazed to see fish swimming in the rivers in downtown Tokyo. Japan of the 1980’s was by many standards the most advanced nation on earth. By 1985, after decades of sizzling economic growth, they had the highest per capita income on earth, the lowest gap between the rich and poor in any developed nation and a very healthy natural environment. They also were the greatest creditor nation on earth, having supplied cars, electronics and other goodies to the rest of the planet often in exchange for IOUs.
当我在1980年第一次去日本的时候，我惊讶于看见东京市中心的河里有鱼在游动。日本在198几年间，在许多衡量标准上都属于地球上最发达的国家。到了1985年，经过几十件蒸蒸日上的经济发展，他们一度拥有地球上任何发达国家中，最高的人均收入，最低的贫富差距和非常健康的自然环境。他们同样也曾经是地球上最棒的债权人，向其他国家出口汽车、电子产品和其它优质商品，经常换取债券。
 
One of the reasons I chose to go to university in Japan was to study the system that had made this miracle possible. This is how it worked. Japan’s government was run by a combination of highly talented bureaucrats, industrialists and politicians with deep roots in their local constituencies. They presided over a system that was a combination of central planning, free market capitalism and socialism.
我选择去日本大学进修的其中一个原因，就是去研究使这个奇迹发生的这套体制。这套体制是这样运作的，日本的政府是由一群，极具才能的官僚、实业家和在各自选区根深蒂固的政客所运作的。他们掌管着一套结合了中央计划、自由市场、资本主义和社会主义的体制。
 
At the apex of the system was an organization known as the Economic Planning Agency. It was run by a group of about 30 members of the bureaucratic, industrial, academic and political ruling elite. They would come up with a 5 year plan for the country. Politicians would explain in detail what their voters desired. Bureaucrats would explain exactly how much money there was available to realistically meet their desires. Industrialists would explain what could be profitably done to contribute to the plan. The country as a whole also had a mission: to overtake and surpass the West.
这套体制的顶端，是一个叫做经济计划局的机构。它由一群包括30人左右的团队运作，包括官僚、实业家、砖家叫兽和政客精英等。他们会为国家制定5年计划。政客们将会详细解释他们选民的诉求。官僚们将会确切解释，满足他们诉求有多少钱可以花。实业家将会解释，在为计划做贡献的时候如何做才能盈利。整个国家同样也有一个使命：赶超西方国家。
 
The system was not like the central planning of Stalinist economies, where even such thing as the amount of toothpaste was centrally planned, because it was based on market forces. The plan might, for example, call for doubling the amount of roads, sewers and port facilities over a 5 year period, and would allocate the money for this. However, it was private companies who bid for the actual work. Furthermore, companies were free to carry out their own independent activities regardless of the bigger plan.
这套体制并不像斯大林模式的中央计划，在斯大林模式下，连牙膏的产量都要受中央计划指导，而原因却是，它是以市场力量为基础的。计划和指令只适用于公共基础设施的建设，比如，在5年当中决定公路的建设里程、下水道官网的布局、以及港口设施的建设等，并为这些项目分配资金。然而，具体的施工应该由非公有制企业来承担和竞标。除此之外，非公有制企业可以自由开展他们的独立活动，而不受中央计划的约束。
 
The only countries that had systems arguably as good as the old Japanese system were the Scandinavian countries, Germany and Canada.
唯一可以与日本旧体制相媲美的国家，是斯堪的纳维亚国家、德国和加拿大。
 
In 1985 the US government set out to destroy this system out of what I can only describe jealousy and fear of being over-taken. George Bush Sr., then vice-president, ordered Japan to dismantle this system and hand economic control over to American oligarchs (gangsters). When the Japanese refused, they shot down Japan airlines flight 123 on August 12, 1985. On September 22nd, 1985, Japan signed the Plaza Accord that signaled the beginning of the systematic destruction of the Japanese economic system. Since then, Japan’s economy has been looted to the tune of about $5 trillion by American and European gangster oligarchs.
在1985年，美国政府着手摧毁这套体制，我唯一能说的原因是出于嫉妒以及害怕被取代。老布什、和随后的副总统，命令日本拆除这套体制，并将经济控制权交给美国寡头（黑帮分子）。当日本拒绝后，他们于1985年8月12日击落了日本123航班。在1985年9月22日，日本签署了广场协议，标志着日本经济体制开始被系统的摧毁。从那以后，日本的经济已经被美国和欧洲的黑帮寡头洗劫了大约5万亿美元。
 
The system that created the Japanese miracle was by no means perfect. One flaw was the system of forced early retirement of low paid bureaucrats. This meant that bureaucrats, instead of thinking of the greater good of their country, had an interest in currying favour with the companies they regulated in exchange for cushy, post-early retirement jobs. The other problem was the system of lifetime employment. While this did create employee loyalty to firms, it was also a feudal system that made it almost impossible for people to change jobs. The political system was also radically biased in favour of rural citizens and against urban residents.
这套创造了日本奇迹的体制也绝不是完美的。第一个缺陷是，这套体制会迫使官僚提前退休并且薪水低下。这意味着那些官僚，将不会去考虑国家的最高利益，而是会利用职务之便为非公有制企业谋取利益，来换取退休之后轻松的工作。另一个问题就是，在这套体制之下的终身雇佣制。虽然这的确会使员工忠诚，但是这同样也是一种封建的体制，导致员工几乎不可能跳槽。政治体制同样也是在根本上有偏见的，它只对农村居民有利，而对于城镇居民来说是不利的。
 
Singapore, to this day, has a better system, where bureaucrats are not forced to retire early and get paid as much as their private sector counter-parts. That is why Singapore keeps sizzling along to this day.
新加坡，直到今天，都沿用着一套更好的体制，这套体制并不强迫官僚提前退休，并且所发的薪水跟非公有制企业不相上下。这就是为什么新加坡直到今天都保持蒸蒸日上的原因。
 
In any case, China’s Deng Xiaoping carefully studied the Japanese and Singaporean systems and adopted them to China. That is one of the main reasons for China’s long economic boom.
无论如何，中国的邓小平仔细地研究了日本和新加坡的体制，并且把它们引进了中国。那就是为什么中国经济长期爆棚的原因。
 
The West would do well to create its own, improved version of this system. That is why I have been proposing creating a future planning agency. This is different from the White Dragon Society, which strongly insists on ending poverty, stopping environmental destruction and expanding earth life exponentially into the universe. This is simply a personal proposal, based on 30 years’ experience as a geopolitical journalist.
西方世界同样也能建立一个他们自己的，改进版本的这套体制。那就是为什么我已经建议去设立一个发改委的原因。这与白龙会的议程不同，他们强烈坚持结束贫困、停止环境破坏，并且以指数方式扩展地球生命到宇宙空间。这只是我个人的建议，根据我30多年作地缘政治记者的经验。
 
The future planning agency I propose would have an initial funding of $7 trillion. That is the amount of money the Japanese have legitimately earned since World War 2. It is based on cars, electronics and other real things sent to the rest of the world. This is different from gold carefully hoarded in caves over the millennia by Asian dynastic families or fantastical numbers put in computers by Western Bankers. It is based on actual production.
我所建议设立的发改委，将会拥有一笔7万亿美元的启动资金。这个数目是日本在2战以后合法挣来的。它是根据汽车、电子产品和其它实物贸易而结算出来的。这跟几千年来亚洲皇室家族小心囤积在洞穴当中的黄金，以及被西方银行家们输入电脑中的幻想出来的数字不同。它是以实际生产为基础的。
 
The future planning agency would exist in harmony with existing institutions and not replace them. It would recruit some of the best brains from all over the world in the fields of government, business, academia etc. Their job would be to study and make real the wishes of the people of the planet, as expressed through the internet and opinion surveys.
新设立的发改委将会与现有的机构和谐共处，而不会去取代它们。他将会从全世界的政府部门、商界、学术界等招募一些顶尖的智库。他们的工作将会是研究并实现这颗星球上的人们的愿望，比如从互联网上和民意调查表上得来的反馈。
 
Here are some possible examples of what such an agency could accomplish. First, it would accept bids and plans for a massive campaign to turn the deserts green. Many competing plans would be allowed to go ahead and those that succeeded would be copied and improved upon. Such an effort could double the amount of land now available for agriculture and nature preserves.
以下是一些可能的例子，能够解释这样一个机构能办到的事。首先，他将会接受投标和计划，来启动一场大规模的运动去绿化沙漠。许多有竞争力的计划将会被允许施行，并且那些获得成功的将会被复制和推广。这种努力能够使耕地和用于自然环境保护的土地面积翻翻。
 
In the case of the oceans, the agency could hire the navies of the world to stop the unsustainable over-fishing that is destroying the ocean eco-systems. Within 5 years it should be possible to increase the amount of fish 10 fold. Feeding the ocean with nutrients may make it possible to further increase this 100 fold.
在海洋事物中，这家机构可以雇佣各国海军，去制止正在毁灭海洋生态系统的、不可持续的过度捕鱼。在5年之内那应该可以使鱼类数量增长10倍。将营养成分撒入大海或许有可能使它进一步增加100倍。
 
Another project it could oversee would be to make sure every child on earth is well fed and well educated. Human brains are the most under-utilized resource on the planet. Allowing all those young minds to reach their full potential would unleash wonders we cannot even imagine at present. These are just ideas meant to form a starting point for a debate about what sort of system we could create to allow us to successfully navigate into the future. It is not a final plan. Nor is it a plan for a single central world government. Many competing corporations, governments, charities, foundations, etc. could all work in harmony with the future planning agency.
这家机构可以监督的另一个项目就是，确保地球上每个孩子都能够丰衣足食，并得到很好的教育。人类的大脑是地球上最没有得到充分开发的资源。允许所有那些年轻的头脑达到充足的潜能，将会发生我们现在连想都不敢想的奇迹。这些仅仅是一些抛砖引玉的主意，为的是引发辩论，帮助我们找出究竟哪种体制我们可以建立，来使我们能够成功过渡到未来的彼岸。这并不是一个最终的计划。也不是一个建立单一世界中央政府的计划。许多有竞争力的企业、政府机构、慈善机构、基金会等，都可以与设想中的发改委和谐共处。
 
In any case, let us look at what we now have in the West. The system of unfettered capitalism is based on the “profit motive” which is a nice way of saying human greed. It has created a black hole sucking up all the world’s resources and wealth into the hands of a tiny, rapacious elite. They spend the world’s savings on a military industrial complex meant to preserve their power.
无论如何，让我们看看当下的西方世界。无拘无束的资本主义制度，是以“利润最大化”为基础的，这是人类贪婪本性的遮羞布。它已经创造出了一个黑洞，将世界上所有的资源和财富都吸进了一小撮贪婪的精英手里。他们将世界的储备都花在一家用于维护他们权力的军工联合体上面。